This weekend was crazy busy. Some quick notes/observations:
1) What recession!? On Friday, Jim, Nicole and I met my parents at Graeter’s for ice cream and then came back to our house to play Scene It. When we arrived at Graeter’s, which for those of you out of town is $3.25/scoop premium ice cream, there was not a single table available and over a half dozen people waiting in line. Things didn’t slow down while we were there. If everyone’s so hurting in this economy why the heck are they eating expensive ice cream!? Even if you want a treat go to friggin’ Kroger and buy a HALF GALLON for $3 or Wendy’s and get a dollar Frosty. This leads me to believe that the recession is only real for those who don’t have a job and therefore don’t have an income. The rest of us employed folk are going on right as usual.
2) On Saturday I went to a mother’s sale which is essentially a big indoor garage sale where kids clothes, toys, shoes, and necessities like cribs, etc. are sold by moms in the area. I bought Nicole 5 things (3 dresses, 1 capri pant and 1 pair of shorts) and Chris 5 things (all overall sets & one set of PJ’s) and spent $23.50. I can’t resist a good deal ($4 sundress with the $22 tags still on!).
3) Immediately following I met Mike, Lindsay and Ryann up at the local elementary school for a carnival. I won’t go into long detail but I thought that it was a very very affordable event, well managed, and a good atmosphere. Nicole got a puffy headband with antennae that she adored and a recorder she can’t figure out how to blow in.
4) Bowling was not good due to below-average performances which lead to a 0/4 night. HOWEVER, because of our exceptional bowling last time we were one of the Top 10 teams in the entire center and therefore get to go to a special tournament where the minimum payout just for showing up is $25/person. Wahoo! We’re cool! There’s no cost to bowl as it’s an honor to have made it and our dues along the way pay for it. It’s based on how much over our average we bowl that afternoon. NYC just got bumped. We’re west siders….
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20 comments:
I still cannot believe we made it into a tournament! We rock!
Good job on the bowling!
I disagree. The recession is very real even to employed folks. I most definitely feel it.
Plus, first Friday would have been a pay day for many - and many people go out for a treat on payday.
Even as I went about my work, I'm still floored by the comment:
"This leads me to believe that the recession is only real for those who don’t have a job and therefore don’t have an income. The rest of us employed folk are going on right as usual."
So glad you got the card and got a chuckle. Yoo bad we lost. :(
I really need to get to one of these mother sales. And I'm glad you bought Chris some pants. Still looking for shorts for Max at a price I'm willing to pay. Only one pair so far. Plus, I'm afraid to buy them too soon at the rate he is growing. We're in 9 month pants already!!!!
I brought this up at Sue's birthday lunch on Saturday and everyone at the table pretty much echoed this sentiment.
When i called out "isn't this strange how busy it is here" to my parents while we were waiting in Graeter's line Dad said they had an hour and a half wait at a restaurant the weekend before.
Doesn't sound like people are skimping too much if they're going out to eat at $12-18/plate dinners and eating gourmet ice cream cones.
Martha, I'd have to agree with Karen on that statement based on what I observe in public. Sorry to hear you are struggling, but based on consumer behavior that I observed in Gaitlinburg, I'd have to agree with Karen. We couldn't even get a parking spot at the outlet malls down there on Saturday. And people were carrying around MULTIPLE bags.
I think part of the problem is that some people even if they are stressed financially will "act" like they aren't and still go out and splurge when they cannot afford to. Also based on the amount of stores closing, it appears as if people are spending less becuase the stores cannot afford to stay open. I could be totally wrong about that though.
There is a phenomenon that my old roommate Val talked about that the poorer you are the more money you will spend on extra's like video games/tv's etc. The concept behind this is that you are poor and unhappy and thus you buy to make yourself happy and forget about how poor you are. It is an endless cycle. A lot of time the better off you are the better you are able to delay gratification (i.e. save up for a nice tv verses spend your whole paycheck on it and not have money left over for food etc).
I would like a shiatsu massage chair. I am choosing not to buy one now so I have money in a savings accoutn and when my account it where I want it, I will be the chair. Someone else might just buy the chair and not have a savings account. What you might say is just responsibility on my part (which is) is also the fact that I am in general hapy and not wanting for things and thus can delay the gratification for a massage chair until I am where I desire to be financially.
I don't know if this makes sense, but it is true. I thinkit is why the movie/cinema market goes up during a depression--people want to forget their troubles.
I'd agree with Martha. Re the ice cream - little luxuries are taking the place of bigger ones these days. People will go to Graters for 3.25 ice cream instead of go to Friendly's, or a more expensive sit-down place, for $4 ice cream + drinks + tips. Re the $12-$18 dinners - are there restaurants in your area that are closing? Perhaps that's moving a little business toward the other ones.
Regarding Lisa's comments, Outlet malls are doing the business that normal retail used to do, and the outlet mall folks are moving to Goodwill and resale shops. People around here are buying less in general, too, which is making manufacturing slow down. I think that if you haven't seen or felt it yet, you will soon. If you don't feel it personally, friends will start to lose their jobs.
While I feel secure in my job (there will always be a need for affordable housing, and there is more grant money for us to work with now), I know I've mentioned I'm worried about Trey's job if manufacturing slows down too much. We're not slowing down on normal spending, but we are going to hold off on big ticket items.
For example, we've just about got enough stashed for a large wine storage unit, and could go ahead and buy some real office furniture as well (with the exception of cars, the condo, and education, I refuse to take out a loan & pay interest, so we wait until we have the cash for things to purchase them). We are, however, holding off on those items for at least a few months, longer if it takes the country longer to get out of a recession. If something happens, I'd rather have a couple of extra mortgage payments in the bank than a wine storage unit we've lived without for the past 5 years anyway.
I would also like to note, I believe there is a recession but I also think the media sensationalizes it too much and it is less than the media states. I also think if the media shuts up about it, things may balance out faster. We are scaring ourselves out of purchases that may make sense--like houses. Now would be a good time to buy if you can afford it.
My shiatsu massage chair makes sense too, I am saving more than usual in concern over the economy.
Viki,
I challenge that you and trey are normally responsible spenders and to a large degree you'd do the same actions anyway, even if there wasn't a recession going on....
am i right?
~K
Additionally - all these people at Graeter's...wasn't that the first 75+ sunny day in the area in a while? A sign of spring? And a week or so ago, did the snowstorm that blanketed the rest of the south, east, and midwest, hit Ohio, too? A lot of people get out and about the first nice weekend of the year, too.
Yes, generally Trey and I are responsible spenders - I've never, ever had credit card debt (and I just found out that my credit score is now at 800!). If there were not a recession going on, however, we would be purchasing a wine storage unit. We've saved for this item and can almost afford it, but in the event something happens, I'd rather have an extra mortgage payment in a savings account.
Jen makes a good point about people not having money spending more of it. Also, people overspending has always been an issue, so now they're just overspending at an outlet mall instead of shelling out for items at full price.
I think the recession statement was unreasonably naive coming from someone with an MBA and who teaches business classes at a university. Based on your entrance into graeters, how were you able to determine a) employment levels of other patrons, b) frequency of visits (are people enjoying this premium ice cream at the same rate, increased rate, or has it become more of a treat for pay day?), c) what did the customers give up to go there? (example listed below) d) how does this compared to previous purchases there? ( are they buying the same items as before, are they buying more? or are they not buying candy pastries with their ice cream, or just getting a single scoop instead of a double, etc.) Same goes for going to other restaurants. Are there other factors in play (others already brought up include unseasonably warm weather...i suspect that would trigger an increase in ice cream visits and closings of other restaurants cold increase the business to those still open).
You would be amazed at my income level and the things I manage to afford to do. Until you looked at the details and realized what I am giving up to afford it (this is the example for c). During the summer of 2004, I was in a situation where my friend and I sold clothes to Plato's closet and pooled our money together (along with spare change) just to buy a 6 pack of guinness and the cheapest frozen pizza we could find...we were sick of water and ramen noodles and wanted a one meal reprieve (ok, the beer lasted for 2-3 meals), but by your example treating ourselves to a premium beer meant we couldn't have possibly been financially challenged.
Kat, your points are very valid about the sample – I don’t know that this wasn’t their only trip of the year to Graeters or that they would have gotten a sundae but only got one scoop instead.
Granted we’ve been to Graeters about once every month for the last few months for one reason or another and it’s always been crowded (even on a weekday) but, again like you say, I could be seeing different people on their once/year trip.
This does not account for the high consistency of other things:
• standard wait times at popular, non-fast food restaurants
• the fact that I can’t book a hotel room in Virginia Beach for vacation because complexes are sold out
• full department stores with lines to check out
• A jam-packed Home and Garden show where people PAY $12/person to talk to salespeople about BUYING things- and high-end things at that.
I see the down economy at work – clients who are pushing negotiations harder than ever, fewer renovations that need our cabling work, etc. but even that’s not as drastic as the media makes it out to be in my opinion…..
I have to agree that the media is somewhat exacerbating the problem.
And with the exception of Trey, I haven't heard of a single one of my friends losing their job, or being at risk. My brother is a painter and was actually able to get better pay right now...seems odd, but true.
I also agree with being prudent with money though. Esp if you think things are up in the air.
how has consumption of these goods and services changed over time (specifically have they stayed the same, increased or decreased in the past ~18 months?)
are you planning your vacation during peak time? are other people substituting away from a more expense caribbean cruise or trip to a beach further away, etc in favor of VA Beach? what are the wait times at restaurants? around here a 2+ hour wait during a peak time wasn't unusual about a year ago, so a 1.5 hour wait might just suggest fewer patrons (I don't actually know what it is like now because I don't really go to those types of places anyways, much less during peak times). were there sales going on at the department stores? were people buying the same amount of things or fewer things than they would have before?
some industries are being hurt more than others (manufacturing and construction). there are some industries that actually improve during recessions (a funny one i read about recently is that activity to psychics increases during recessions)
i agree that the media tends to be dramatic about issues (they also focus on the negative), but I still find it hard to believe there are people not affected by the economy. maybe cincinnati isn't as hard hit as some other parts of the country (there was a story recently that lexington has not been, and we are quite glad). however, have you checked P&G's stock lately? It is over $20 less PER SHARE than it was 1 year ago. It's now about 2/3 of what it was a year ago. And although there was news of the President stepping down, dropping share prices $1, yet it still follows the general trend of the past several months. When other investments are what they were 12 years ago, the current economy is not just affecting the unemployed.
Of course, I believe this is generally a temporary problem. I think the number 1 thing to change it permanently is a change in household spending, but i don't see that as happening. instead i see a lot of quick fixes and suggestions that will likely cause people to resume their old habits as soon as they can.
your original statement actually reminds me of people who say "we had a record low today, therefore there cannot be global warming" (of course global warming is a whole other issue to get me going on...wording is everything, and I find "Global Climate Change" far more accurate)
i feel inclined to comment on matters of the economy...not because i'm an expert by any means, but it is certainly an area of interest for me.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29593426/?gt1=43001
Warren Buffet says the economy has gone to crap (not his wording). The stock market is at 50% of what it was a year and a half ago.
I know several people that have lost jobs and/or are having great difficulty finding jobs. The unemployment rate (those who want and are looking for jobs) is approaching 10%. That's more than double what it was less than 2 years ago.
Just because you don't see it, doesn't mean it's make-believe.
You’re misunderstanding me. I don’t think the recession is make believe at all. Certainly not for the 8+% of unemployed people or the 10+% of people who’s jobs have been cut back. Not for the probably nearly 100% of people, myself included, whose retirement funds took a bath in 2008. I’m personally affected – we have YEARS of capital losses to write off on our taxes from our stock market investments. Nicole’s 529 college plan has lost more than half its value. I just don’t think that a lot of people are changing their habits significantly as a result of the recession.
To some of Kathy’s comments – when isn’t there a sale at a department store?! We all brag about our good deals and have for years! I am going on vacation during peak season and clearly lots of other folks are too.
I don’t know a single person who has lost their job. I don’t even know anyone who knows anyone personally who’s lost a job. Part of that is probably the type of people I hang around with; I totally admit this is skewed in attributes compared to the general population. Part of it is my geography (this would certainly not be the case if we lived in Detroit or Jim’s hometown where jobs are more scarce, etc.).
Again, I fully recognize that the recession is going on. No denying its existence. I am simply making a blanket statement that it’s not affecting everyone in such dramatic (and I will say for many I know, even moderate ways) ways that the media would have you believe. It’s just not sensational news to report on people continuing to shop and eat gourmet ice cream. It’s more “interesting” to hear about a wall street broker now cleaning toilets even though this only represents 20% (see first paragraph’s estimates) of the population and not the vast majority.
Jim warned me about this blog at work... so he and I have already had a long IM chat about this :)
In a nutshell... I agree with the sentiment that you don't know what people are giving up to buy the ice cream. Maybe they've saved for a while and are splurging. Maybe they are giving up a $30 steak for eating at home and $3.25 ice cream. It's all relative. Just because times are tight doesn't mean you're gonna see shanty towns out there and people living out of boxes.
The second thing I agree with is that it's blown out of proportion. The economy should slow down to correct itself, but it's all this fear that prevents it from coming back up. The same way that all the irrational exuberance creates bubbles. We're in a time of negative irrational exuberence.
I really wonder if Cincinnati is doing better than the rest of the country now, or if it's just that your family hasn't been exposed. Just out of curiosity, how's the crime rate in Cincinnati? That might be an indication of how you guys are doing geographically. The crime rate in Chicago has gone up significantly, along with raising unemployment.
Oh, and Lisa mentioned that Trey's the only person she knows at risk (and my note is that he might not even be at risk, that's just me worrying). I've got a few others:
-Trey's mom worked for Citi and was cut in December. She worked at Citi for something like 10 years, after her previous company (she worked there for something like 10 or 15 years, too) was bought out by Citi.
-My godmother works for GE and is very worried. She says there's all kinds of speculation but nothing is final, but she's been a victim of downsizing before.
-My mom just took a 10% paycut because the Chicago Archdiocese is cutting church budgets and her's elected to cut everyone's salary rather than let someone go. On top of the 15% cut she took when she changed parishes, that hurts.
On another note, unemployment is approaching 10%, but that doesn't count the millions of people who want to work full time but can only find part time work.
While I agree with Dale and others that the media is blowing this out of proportion, it's still very real. I would challenge people who have not been affected at all to step out of their bubbles and put themselves in someone else's shoes for a while.
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